ECUMENE.ORG President Abdurrahman Wahid
International Scholars
Annual Trialogue February 2000
NEWS FROM JAKARTA
by
Professor John Raines, Temple University
Jakarta, Indonesia
3 February 2000Dear Friends and Family:
What a fascinating time to be here in Jakarta and in Indonesia--a nation
that is trying to reinvent itself--and at the most real meaning of that
reinvent, i.e., changing who and how power works in this country. Yes, we
are in an end game here; and I think Wahid has made brilliant moves.The opening of this end game, and no more than that, was when the Indonesian
economy went through the floor in 1998. By May of that year, with students
not only rioting on the streets of Jakarta but being shot (on television) to
death for doing so, Soeharto decided to step down. On his right and left at
the moment of his announcement were Abdurrahman Wahid (now President of
Indonesia) and General Wiranto (then, head of the army), Does that tell you
something about how power works in this country? The generals have been in
bed with the cronies (spelled "corruption" ever since 1967 when Soeharto
took over power in this country). In the outer islands, it has been the
generals who had the real power and used that power to enrich themselves.
More recently, the form of that enrichment (amongst others) has been the
"illegal" cutting down of the world's second largest rain forest (after
Brazil). Soeharto was "out" but the old power base in the generals of the
army and the cronies was still in place.They had thought and hoped that Habibie (in bed with Soeharto and company)
would be able to be elected to permanent office. They feared the popular
vote. They hoped it would come down to a showdown between Megawatti (a
woman!) and their guy. That, they were sure they could win. But then came
Wahid, with his base in the countryside and the ulama (Islamic scholars and
jurists). And Wahid won, then asked Megawatti to be his V.P.. So there was
the standoff, and the announcement of the endgame. How would power work in
this country, the old way or something different?We haven't seen anything that significant in the USA since 1776.
The cronies and the generals still held most of the cards. They had the
money. They shared together a deep fear not only of being replaced but of
having their corruption shown in public. Gus Dur (Wahid's familiar name)
had a narrow vote from the People's Assembly, the students, part of the
Islamic vote (the moderate part), and what he hoped would be the help of the
international community. Mind you, this is a strongly nationalist country.
You folks out there may have moral outrage about East Timor; but for many
folks here, that was simply a "loss to the country." What if Mexico had
beat us in Texas--with the help of the English?The generals and the cronies played their very considerable cards. They
fomented (not to hard) bloody riots and havoc in the outlying islands where
the generals still held the power (including the collusion of a lot of the
governors). By stirring up what appeared to be "religious and ethnic
violence" the generals and their cronies here in Jakarta hoped to accomplish
two results: first, the enemy is the Islamic other; and second, the army is
the key to security. It was and is a powerful move and play in this
endgame.What does Gus Dur do. Wonderful! he begins to chip away at both the army
and the cronies. He appoints military to head positions who come from the
air force and the navy. He begins official investigations of the corruption
of the cronies. And he gets help. The USA sends a shot across the bow of
the generals--you do a coup and it is the end of IMF money and the beginning
of your economy (already deeply limping) going into the basement. Are you
ready for that cronies and generals? and the students taking to the streets?The answer was YES.
So enter the United Nations and its investigation of Wiranto and other top
generals for their behavior in East Timor (calculated behavior to create a
politics of ethnic violence and an "us" vs.. "them" where the us is all
Muslims--irrespective of economic condition, powerlessness, exploitation,
and profound alienation from the elite). It has worked before, and very
recently in Africa, in India, in Pakistan, and in the dismembered body of
what was once Yugoslavia. GOOD PLAY. TOUCH TO COUNTER.Wahid has our friend Alwi go to the U.N. and plead for an interesting
case--this is my speculation; I have no special knowledge. Wahid and Alwi
say, "we have our own national inquiry into human rights abuses--let us take
care of this! Unsaid, or perhaps said (who knows) was, you go ahead and
bring the charges against Wiranto and his boys. We'll hold out for our
national tribunal. This will present the generals with this dilemma: do
you want us or the U.N. to investigate you and perhaps bring you to trial?
If you want the U.N. to do it, go ahead and do your coup and watch not only
the economy go through the floor, and students take to the streets; but also
watch yourselves branded international criminals who can't leave your
country and who have your foreign bank accounts frozen! WOW.So, here we are at the endgame. The cronies and the generals will have to
decide. Gus Dur and Alwi are out of the country. To do a coup is to
overthrow (in person) Megawatti--who got by far the most votes in the last
election and the vast majority of votes in Jakarta! Yes, capital cities and
their local populations and politics do count. Think of the French
Revolution and Paris.Here's my guess--and that is all that it is. Gus Dur has played what
started as a seemingly powerless hand brilliantly. I think he could win
this endgame. The IMF is announcing "a long-term partnership and investment
in Indonesia" if the present government stays in charge. The cronies,
interested only in money (they like power too, but it's still mostly money),
have to figure out where to bet their pocketbooks. So, what used to be firm
partners at the grand pig trough, suddenly begins eyeing each other
suspiciously. Who will let whom hang out twisting slowly in the wind?You know very well whom I want to win this endgame. Will they? I have no
idea. But I do think they have played a very sharp game thus far.Stay tuned for "news from Jakarta." I kept hold of my Am. Express Travelers
Checks in case I'm wrong. I don't think I will need them. And wouldn't
that be something to write home about over the next few months.John Raines
sted July 22 1999
News from Jakarta: Next Instalment
Last revised 3 February 2000
Electronic edition copyright © 2000 Ingrid H. ShaferLast revised July 22, 1999